Future Climate Data: A Breakthrough for Sustainable Design
In the pursuit of sustainable architecture and urban planning, we must look beyond the present and prepare for the challenges of tomorrow. That’s why Future Climate Data remains a critical tool for anyone designing resilience in a changing climate.
Powered by advanced AI-driven wind analysis, Orbital Stack now offers industry-leading wind assessments combined with future climate models. Architects, Sustainability Consultants, Urban Planners, and Facility Managers can now evaluate outdoor thermal comfort with a forward-thinking approach.
Why Future Climate Data Matters
Climate analysis traditionally relies on historical data to predict future conditions. However, with the increasing impact of climate change, this approach may no longer suffice. Our future climate feature provides weather estimates based on various future climate scenarios developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
These scenarios, known as Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), depict different ways the world could evolve, ultimately leading to different potential climate impacts. By integrating these scenarios with global weather models, forecasters have developed a set of example weather scenarios out to 2100. With these weather scenarios in hand, Orbital Stack allows you to simulate your projects against this hypothetical future climate.
Understanding Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs)
The Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs) describe the set of hypothetical edge scenarios that the world economy could evolve to over the coming years. Each one leads to very different energy consumption patterns and ultimately different climate impacts. Here’s a brief overview:
Sustainability (SSP1): This pathway envisions a gradual shift towards a more sustainable world, with an emphasis on inclusive development and environmental stewardship. Inequality decreases, and consumption patterns prioritize lower resource and energy intensity.
Middle of the Road (SSP2): In this scenario, the world follows historical trends, with uneven development and slow progress towards sustainable goals. While there are improvements, environmental degradation persists, and income inequality remains a challenge.
Regional Rivalry (SSP3): Resurgent nationalism and regional conflicts drive countries to focus on domestic issues, leading to slow economic development and environmental degradation. Inequalities worsen, and investments in education and technology decline.
Inequality (SSP4): Highly unequal investments in human capital result in increasing disparities within and between countries. Social cohesion weakens, and conflict becomes more common. Environmental policies focus on local issues, while global inequality grows.
Fossil-Fueled Development (SSP5): This scenario relies on rapid technological progress and fossil fuel exploitation for economic growth. While there are investments in health and education, environmental concerns are secondary. Global population peaks and declines, and local environmental problems are managed, but faith in geo-engineering is necessary.
These pathways offer valuable insights into potential futures, guiding decisions in planning and policy-making to create a more sustainable and resilient world.
How It Works
Orbital Stack selects three-year samples from the future weather simulations: one leading up to the present, one to 2050, and one to 2100. These samples can then be integrated into thermal comfort and wind calculations to produce simulations based on the chosen time period.
While these models may not be as precise as direct weather measurements, they offer invaluable insights into potential future climates. To baseline results, users can compare model predictions for the present time with historically measured simulations, using this insight to frame the changes observed with simulations against future data.
Learn More
The data used for future climate projects comes from the IPCC’s Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The underlying pathways and models were developed as part of the IPCC’s Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports (AR5 and AR6). To read more, see the following links:
- IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/
- IPCC AR6 Assessment Report: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/
- Introduction to SSPs: https://climatedata.ca/resource/understanding-shared-socio-economic-pathways-ssps/
- Overview of CMIP6: https://climate-scenarios.canada.ca/?page=cmip6-overview-notes
Get Started
To access Future Climate Data, reach out to sales@orbitalstack.com. Once your project is created, simply notify your Orbital Stack Representative to add your desired climate scenarios. For additional information and step-by-step instructions, see our HelpSite article: https://help.orbitalstack.com/future-climate-data/
Prepare your projects for the challenges of tomorrow with Orbital Stack’s Future Climate Data. Embrace sustainability and resilience in every design decision.
Please contact sales@orbitalstack.com to discuss integrating Future Climate Data into your current package.